Donald Trump has thrown cold water on the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, claiming the Islamic Republic hasn't yet "paid a big enough price" for its past wrongs - a statement that strongly implies the invoice is still being tallied, possibly via more airstrikes.
The remarks come amid growing speculation that the US might launch another round of strikes against Iran to force concessions, particularly a halt to its nuclear program. Israeli press reports quote senior military officials saying they're preparing for possible US strikes - and the inevitable Iranian retaliation against Israel. A senior Israeli officer briefed reporters on Friday, helpfully defining success as getting Iran to cease uranium enrichment and surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Anything less, apparently, is a failure.
On Sunday night, Iran's foreign ministry said it had received a US response to its peace proposal and would review it, though a ministry spokesperson clarified via state media that exchanging messages through Pakistan doesn't mean nuclear negotiations have actually resumed. Iran's military-backed Fars news agency quoted a senior official as saying a return to all-out conflict is "likely," four weeks after a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire. Pakistani efforts to restart peace talks in Islamabad have failed, as each side set preconditions the other refused to meet.
When asked Saturday about renewed hostilities, Trump said it was possible, adding the caveat: "If they misbehave, if they do something bad, but right now, we'll see." That same day, the head of US Central Command, Adm Brad Cooper, visited sailors aboard the USS Tripoli and USS Milius in the Arabian Sea, two days after a top-level White House briefing on Trump's military options. With the arrival of the USS George HW Bush on April 24, the US now has three aircraft carriers in the Middle East for the first time since the 2003 Iraq war.
While threatening a return to bombing, Trump also wrote to Congress on Friday claiming the ceasefire meant hostilities had "terminated," arguing the administration isn't legally obliged to seek congressional approval for military operations within 60 days of the war's start. A few hours later, he contradicted himself, telling supporters at a Florida retirement community: "You know we're in a war, because I think you would agree we cannot let lunatics have a nuclear weapon."
The suspension of enrichment and dilution or export of the stockpile had been on the table in US-Iranian negotiations that began when Trump launched an attack on Iran on February 28 alongside Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The war has triggered an additional crisis: both sides have imposed parallel blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, gateway for a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies, as economic leverage - with dire implications for energy prices and the global economy. On Sunday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported that a bulk carrier was attacked by "multiple small craft" off the Iranian coast near Sirik, at the eastern entrance to the strait. All crew were safe; other shipping was advised to proceed with caution.
Iran presented a new 14-point proposal to the US via Pakistan on Friday, reportedly focused on lifting the blockades and creating a new mechanism for managing the strait. Iranian press portrayed it as a comprehensive peace plan to be implemented within 30 days, including compensation for war damage, lifting sanctions, and cessation of hostilities on all fronts - including Lebanon, where Israel continues to exchange fire with Hezbollah despite a ceasefire Trump declared. On Sunday, Israel ordered thousands to leave villages in southern Lebanon, and the Lebanese health ministry reported 20 killed and 46 injured by Israeli strikes over 24 hours.
Trump told reporters Saturday he hadn't seen the Iranian proposal's details but would review the full text. Shortly after, he posted on social media that he "can't imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years." He had already rejected an earlier Iranian proposal, also Hormuz-focused. His readiness to maintain a US blockade on shipping using Iranian ports complicates a planned visit later this month to China, Iran's biggest oil customer, accounting for 80% of its exports and about 13% of China's oil imports.
The intelligence wing of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement Sunday via state television: "Trump must choose between an impossible operation or a bad deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran." It also cited a "shift in tone" from China, Russia, and Europe toward Washington, and mentioned Iran's own "deadline" on the blockade - though what deadline remains unclear.
The US has threatened to tighten its blockade by sanctioning shipping companies that make payments to Tehran to move cargoes through the strait. Rising petrol prices and a slowing global economy also pose a political threat to Trump as the US approaches congressional elections in November, where a Democratic win in one or both chambers would weaken his presidency. So far, Trump has shrugged off domestic concerns, becoming increasingly aggressive on the world stage toward traditional adversaries and allies alike.
He has signaled he's prepared to escalate a showdown with Germany over critical remarks about the Iran war by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The Pentagon was reportedly surprised by Trump's social media announcement of troop redeployments, but on Friday announced 5,000 of roughly 40,000 troops in Germany would be withdrawn. The next day, Trump told reporters: "We're going to cut way down. And we're cutting a lot further than 5,000." He didn't provide a reason for the redeployment, which would trigger congressional resistance if troop levels in Europe fall below the minimum of 76,000 permanently stationed and temporarily deployed troops - a limit imposed after the administration withdrew a brigade from Romania.
The Republican chairs of the Senate and House armed services committees criticized the proposed withdrawal, issuing a statement saying it risked "undermining deterrence and sending the wrong signal to Vladimir Putin." Rather than being withdrawn from Europe, they argued, the troops should be moved further east toward Russia. The US troops at European bases are there as part of the US commitment to European defense, but they also support US operations in the Middle East and elsewhere.