Australia's economy is apparently auditioning for a role in a slow-motion disaster film, with the Reserve Bank of Australia widely expected to deliver a fifth interest rate hike on Tuesday, pushing the cash rate to 4.85% - the highest level since 2008. Because what better way to fight inflation than to make everyone's mortgage payments more expensive?

The Commonwealth Bank, Australia's largest lender, has revised its forecast for national dwelling prices, now expecting a peak-to-trough fall of about 14%, up from its previous forecast of 9%. CBA senior economist Trent Saunders noted the downturn has accelerated to include mid-sized state capitals Brisbane and Perth. He expects prices to stabilise late next year - presumably after everyone has finished crying into their spreadsheets.

The revised outlook aligns with CBA's updated economic forecasts, which warn that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East is helping trigger a "sharper, longer slowdown." Most economists had anticipated low double-digit falls in Australian property prices, but several now expect peak-to-trough drops of about 15%. So, if you were hoping to buy a house, maybe wait until the economy finishes its extended tantrum.

The RBA's expected move will push the cash rate to its highest since 2008, amid rising worries the economy could even be tipped into recession. Belinda Allen, CBA's head of Australian economics, said the extended Middle East conflict, collapsing house prices, and a more aggressive central bank would drive real GDP down to just 1% by the middle of next year - nearly half the previous estimate of 1.8%. Growth through 2027 would be barely stronger at an estimated 1.1%. In other words, the economy is about to go from "sluggish" to "needs a nap."

For someone with an average-sized new mortgage of $731,000, paying a typical rate of 6.2%, a 0.25 percentage point rate increase would add about $119 to their $4,596 monthly repayments. That's $119 that won't be going towards avocado toast or, you know, food.

NSW premier Chris Minns rejected commentary from some economists that the RBA's decision would be straightforward. "I know they've got a just difficult decision to make. I accept that, but we've got to be careful that in their efforts to slow down the economy, they don't stop it dead," he said, adding that a rate hike would have a "disproportionate impact" on the state's economy due to NSW's high house prices. "This is an extra hit to a pay packet that many people haven't budgeted for, are not ready for. It's going to have a massive impact on our economy."

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, defended his government's record while in Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda, for the Commonwealth heads of government meeting at the request of King Charles. He has faced criticism for being out of the country during the decision. "We work each and every day on cost of living," he said. "What I recognise as well is that by engaging in the world, we can deal with our national security interests, but also make our economy stronger. That's why we need to engage in the world." Because nothing says "engaging with the world" like a rate hike back home.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers told ABC's RN that Australians are bracing for a "difficult decision" ahead of the expected rate hike. "People are under substantial pressure already, and obviously, if rates go up today, that will make things much harder, especially when there are already a number of rate rises in the system and their full effect hasn't been felt yet," he said. "Regardless of the decision that the Reserve Bank takes independently this afternoon, we know that there is more work to do to make the budget as tight as it can be."

Chalmers also flagged more "savings" in the next federal budget update, telling RN the government is working through spending pressures, economic forecasts, and savings options ahead of December's release. "There have been savings in all eight of our budget updates so far. There'll be savings in the ninth as well," he said. The powerful expenditure review committee met on Monday and will convene again on Wednesday to discuss savings. Because if there's one thing Australians love, it's more savings - just not the kind that help their household budgets.

Welcome to Guardian Australia's live coverage of the Reserve Bank's Tuesday board meeting, where the only thing more predictable than the rate hike is the collective sigh of mortgage holders across the nation.