A senior Welsh Labour figure has conceded the party has lost the Senedd election, with even the first minister herself at risk of losing her seat. Deputy First Minister Huw Irranca-Davies said it "looks like Eluned Morgan won't be returned" in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency, as counting continues across Wales.
Labour has won Westminster and Cardiff Bay elections in Wales for more than a century, but opinion polls have suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are both vying for the top spot. When asked if Welsh Labour were going to be in a position to form a government with Eluned Morgan as first minister, Irranca-Davies replied: "I don't think we're going to be in that situation."
"We tried to put forward a very positive manifesto," he told BBC Wales. "I think it has been a good manifesto, it really has, and we have tried to argue on policies and also the next chapter for Wales. But if it hasn't cut through to the people of Wales, we're not going to be in that position then to actually form the next government."
Sixteen new super constituencies are each sending six politicians to Cardiff Bay under a more proportional voting system as the Welsh Parliament becomes home to 96 members, up from the previous 60. BBC Wales political editor Gareth Lewis said "words like catastrophic" were being used to describe "how the Labour vote has collapsed". "They're very, very nervous, not at all certain of winning a seat at all in areas like Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, for example," he said.
Although a defeat for Labour was widely expected after poor showings in recent opinion polls, a loss in Wales - where it has led its government since 1999 - would have political significance of historic proportions. A former Welsh government minister told BBC Wales that if the results were "as bad as predicted" then UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer should stand down as prime minister.
Both Plaid and Reform have been pitching the election as a two-horse race - encouraging voters to back them over other parties. Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake told BBC Newsnight that he thinks his party will have a "very good result". Asked if he thought Plaid Cymru had done enough to get the result over the line, he said: "I think so. It's going to be a very close election."
The party's deputy leader Delyth Jewell described the election as a "battle for Wales' soul", that was about more than stopping Reform - Plaid's main rival, according to pollsters. One Reform candidate, Francesca O'Brien, predicted her party would do "exceptionally well", saying she was "very hopeful" Reform could even win a majority of the votes. "The feedback on the doorstep has been extremely positive," the party's lead candidate for Gŵyr Abertawe told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast. "I think it is evident that Labour will collapse in Wales today. I think it is almost a referendum not only on Eluned Morgan but also on Keir Starmer."
After polls closed on Thursday night, Labour's Irranca-Davies said: "We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances. After many years in government in Wales and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration."
Former Welsh counsel general Mick Antoniw told BBC Wales the election had been the most difficult for Labour "in living memory". He said it seemed to be "more about Downing Street and immigration than Wales". Asked whether he thought Sir Keir could continue as prime minister, he said: "If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership. Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest."
Several Welsh Labour MPs have told BBC Wales that they were not expecting a challenge to Sir Keir, despite the mood being described as "at rock bottom" by one frontbencher. A number of them called for a bolder set of policies and for lessons to be learned. Morgan said consistently during the campaign that Sir Keir was "not on the ballot paper". But when asked on Wednesday if he could stay on if Labour lost in Wales, she said she would not be drawn in to "speculation".
Labour sources told BBC Wales throughout the campaign that the prime minister came up negatively with voters on doorsteps. A "grudging" acknowledgement that he had handled the UK's response to the Iran war well had been soured by the Lord Mandelson saga, they said. Asked if he stood by the prime minister, ex-Labour first minister Carwyn Jones said: "Yes, I don't think it's simply a question of if Keir Starmer goes everything will be fine - it's not that easy. Do things need to change at Westminster? Yes. The message has to be more optimistic, we have to be more robust, we have to believe in ourselves a lot more, we have to give a sense of direction."
A senior Welsh Labour figure said polling day had been "awful". "I've never known anything like it. We've been knocking on the doors of people who've consistently voted Labour in the past only to find the vast majority have voted Plaid, Reform, Green or importantly stayed at home," they said. "The Plaid message 'we're the only party to stop Reform' has really cut through. But Reform have also cashed in big time on disillusionment with Keir Starmer and our Labour government."
Nigel Farage kicked off Reform's campaign by saying that the election was a "referendum on Starmer". A Labour defeat in Wales would have political significance of historic proportions. One of the founders of the modern Labour party, Keir Hardie was MP for Merthyr Tydfil from 1900 to 1915 and Labour has emerged from every general election as Wales' largest party since 1922. Labour has also won every Welsh election since the Senedd was first established in 1999.
If the defeat is confirmed, then the party in Wales is likely to undergo a period of soul-searching, lesson-learning and an attempt to find a new direction to win back voters. However, Labour could yet - depending on Friday's result - end up in talks over a deal with Plaid Cymru and other parties to form the next Welsh government. The Welsh result is also likely to have an impact on the future of the prime minister as Labour contemplates a challenging set of local elections in England and the election to the Scottish Parliament.
Reform UK said: "We're proud to have run a campaign based on putting the Welsh people first." The Green Party is hoping to gain a presence in Cardiff Bay for the first time. "We're very encouraged by the polling, and seeing the vote share that we're getting across England [in local elections] just really demonstrates that," Sir Fynwy Torfaen candidate Ian Chandler said. Asked if one Senedd seat would be disappointing, he said: "If you had given us that six months ago we would have bitten your hand off."
The Welsh Liberal Democrats hope to return a larger group than in 2021, when the party only saw its leader Jane Dodds elected. She said: "Whatever the result tonight, our party will continue fighting for stronger local services, a fairer economy and a Wales where every community has the opportunity to thrive."