On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel decided to open a new chapter in Middle Eastern diplomacy by dropping large-scale strikes on Iran. Tehran, never one to let a slight go unnoticed, responded by attacking Israeli and US allies across the Gulf. Because nothing says 'let's talk' like a regional conflagration.

Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed on day one - a bold opening move that set the tone for the chaos to follow. The strait of Hormuz, that vital maritime artery through which more than 100 vessels pass daily carrying about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil, was effectively closed shortly thereafter. Because who needs global oil supplies anyway?

Since then, the conflict has oscillated between bursts of fighting and fragile ceasefires, with each diplomatic opening inevitably followed by fresh threats, disputed agreements, and renewed attacks. It's almost as if the parties involved are allergic to peace.

This timeline, based on an analysis of about 4,000 Truth Social posts, 7,700 IRGC Telegram messages, and a selection of X posts, traces six months of strikes, threats, and failed diplomacy. It also shows how the war has disrupted shipping and sent oil prices on a rollercoaster ride. Data on shipping traffic comes from Lloyd's List Intelligence (including 'dark transits' after 28 Feb), airstrike data from Acled, and oil prices from LSEG.

So grab your popcorn and your fuel-efficient car, because this is the story of how the world's oil supply became a bargaining chip in a very expensive game of chicken.