After Texas Republicans decided that Ken Paxton - a man whose résumé features an impeachment, fraud charges, and an alleged affair - was their best bet for the US Senate, Democrats are suddenly feeling very optimistic about a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic senator since 1988. Paxton, who beat incumbent John Cornyn with a boost from Trump in the most expensive primary of the year, will now face James Talarico, a young state lawmaker and pastor who won the Democratic primary while his national profile was rising.
Winning the Senate seemed like a fever dream for Democrats when Trump retook the White House, and it's still a steep climb: they need to hold all their current seats and flip four to take control from the current 53-47 Republican majority. But a bunch of factors have them feeling bullish: Trump's approval rating has cratered, midterms usually punish the party in power, Democrats are winning special elections in unexpected places, and some candidates are finding success by ditching establishment talking points for populist platforms.
In swing-state Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff is expected to keep his seat. North Carolina's Thom Tillis is leaving an open seat Republicans previously held, with former Democratic governor Roy Cooper poised to snag it. Mary Peltola gives Democrats a strong option in Alaska. And in Maine, they think Graham Platner can unseat long-serving Republican Susan Collins. Democrats also want to keep an open seat in Michigan and one in New Hampshire, and they're hoping to win back Ohio via Sherrod Brown, a longtime elected official who lost in 2024. The favorable headwinds have them even looking at long shots like Iowa, Nebraska, and Texas.