Back in November 2024, when Donald Trump won the presidency, the hot take was that he had fundamentally reshaped American politics. NBC News declared, with the confidence of a cable news chyron, that he had 'realigned the entire political map' and that Democrats had 'no easy path' to fix it. The results were indeed close - Trump won 312 electoral votes to Joe Biden's 306, though he actually won fewer total popular votes and a smaller percentage. But the real evidence for a realignment was demographic: the GOP had tightened its grip on the white working class and made historic inroads with young men and Hispanic voters.
In May 2025, pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote in The Atlantic that a new political era had dawned, arguing that the realignment of the working class, which had helped Trump in 2016, had now extended to nonwhite voters. 'In an era of nationalized politics and growing polarization, the social basis for Democratic majorities is looking more and more tenuous,' he warned. Democrats' problems are indeed real, but right now, Trump and the GOP have bigger ones: Trump's personal unpopularity has reached historic lows. A CNN poll last week put his approval at 34 percent, matching his post-January 6 low. AP-NORC found 33 percent, and Quinnipiac found 32 percent - the lowest ever in that poll. But the real damage is among the very groups that were supposed to anchor the realignment.
Take young voters. Kamala Harris won a slim majority of them in 2024, a massive drop from Biden's 25-point margin in 2020. The Yale Youth Poll in May found that 68 percent of voters ages 18 to 22 and 72 percent of those ages 23 to 29 disapproved of Trump. Echelon Insights found younger voters' approval of Trump has fallen 37 percent since his administration began. Harvard's Institute of Politics found young voters are especially skeptical of expanded presidential power and 'national emergency' claims - two pillars of Trump's governance style. Young men, once thought to be fleeing to the manosphere, have soured on him too; the Yale poll found men under 30 are among the groups most turned against Trump since last fall.
Trump is also losing ground with Black and Hispanic voters, especially men, per Bloomberg Government. In 2024, he won nearly half of Hispanic voters, but polls now show Republicans drawing just 27 to 35 percent support in the midterms - their worst showing since 2018. Equis, a pollster focused on Latino voters, finds Latino approval of Trump lower than non-Latino voters, and a May poll found a quarter of Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 wouldn't do it again.
Even his core supporters are wavering. A New York Times review of polling data in June found white working-class voters' views on Trump's economic handling are tanking. In his first term, they rated him higher than the overall population; now they rate him much worse. In February 2016, Trump said, 'I love the poorly educated.' They don't love him back: Echelon finds his approval down to 41 percent among those with a high-school education or less. The Institute for the Study of Modern Authoritarianism finds a shrinking Trump base and less personal connection - a problem for a personalist leader. Republican strategists are worried that even consistent GOP voters might stay home in November, per The Washington Post.
Poll analyst G. Elliott Morris notes that Trump's 2024 win had plenty of non-realignment explanations: pandemic fallout, global anti-incumbent sentiment, Biden's ill-advised run and late exit. But the foremost was inflation. Americans were angry about high prices, and now Trump is losing support for the same reason. He hasn't ended inflation - it ran at 3.5 percent in June - and his decisions, especially the Iran war, have driven prices higher. Voters gave him a shot out of disgust with Biden; now they see the results and don't like them.
Brookings' Jonathan Rauch predicted this on November 9, 2024, calling the election 'an ordinary election' and warning that Republicans might claim a mandate stronger than voters intended, leading to 'policies that are more extreme and disruptive than the public wants or expects.' The realignment now looks as moribund as GOP chances in the midterms.
Elsewhere in The Atlantic: ticks are winning, apparently - Lyme cases have doubled since 2000, with eight new tick-borne diseases and that delightful meat allergy, alpha-gal syndrome. A plan to renovate Dulles Airport will be popular, but the airport is fine, argues Adrienne LaFrance. Instagram TV brings the endless scroll to your television, Kaitlyn Tiffany writes. And in politics: Trump appealed a judge's ruling on his $1.8 billion slush fund, but Senator John Cornyn struck a deal to move Todd Blanche's nomination forward, with the Justice Department promising to 'permanently terminate' the anti-weaponization fund - details vague, confidence low.