Iran’s Fars news agency, which is to conservative circles what a warm blanket is to a conspiracy theorist, reported on Sunday that Tehran has not made a final decision on signing the agreement under discussion with the United States to end the Middle East war. "The Islamic Republic of Iran has not yet taken or announced its final decision concerning the memorandum of understanding proposed during negotiations," Fars said, citing a well-informed source close to the Iranian negotiating team - presumably someone who knows how to say 'maybe' in four different languages. The prospective agreement has faced opposition from hardline Iranian figures, who argue it does not serve Iran’s interests and would deprive Tehran of leverage over the strategic Strait of Hormuz - because nothing says 'leverage' like blocking international shipping lanes.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post that could double as a ransom note, declared: "The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL." He added that Iran "no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement" - a statement that would be more reassuring if the President hadn't claimed about 40 times that a deal was imminent, only to revert to threatening Iran with new attacks. Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, also got in on the premature celebration, saying Islamabad was preparing for an electronic signing within 24 hours. "We are closer to a peace deal than ever before," Sharif wrote on social media, which is diplomatic code for 'please don't fact-check this'.
But Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, poured cold water on the optimism. "We will have to wait and see about the exact date of the signing of the memorandum of understanding, although it will not be tomorrow," Baghaei said, adding that signing in the coming days "cannot be ruled out" - which is about as firm as a Jell-O handshake. Reuters reported some supposed terms of the draft agreement: Iran must not produce or acquire nuclear weapons, must dilute its highly enriched uranium stockpile within 60 days, and cannot enrich uranium or expand facilities. In exchange, the US will waive oil sanctions for a specified period, release $25bn of Iran’s frozen assets, and lift the naval blockade. Iran must also immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels - a concession that would be more meaningful if they hadn't been using it as a bargaining chip.
On the ground, the Israeli military claimed it "precisely struck" a Hezbollah infrastructure site in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, in response to Hezbollah firing into Israeli territory. Lebanon’s National News Agency said a strike hit Ghobeiry, while an AFP correspondent reported hearing explosions from the southern suburbs - because nothing says 'precision' like 'loud bangs in a residential area.' The IDF told people in 29 villages in southern Lebanon to leave their homes ahead of strikes, despite a ceasefire intended to halt the war with Hezbollah - a ceasefire that is apparently more of a suggestion than a rule. Earlier, Israeli military said two drones suspected to have been launched by Hezbollah struck northern Israel but caused no casualties, which is about as close to a good news as we get in this region.
In a separate but equally grim note, an Indian national died from medical complications aboard the vessel MT Celestial while docked at Duqm Port in Oman. The Indian embassy in Muscat said arrangements are being made for repatriation of the remains. This comes days after three Indian seafarers were killed in a US strike on a tanker off Oman - because apparently working on a ship in the Middle East has become an extreme sport. India has more than 300,000 seafarers working across global shipping fleets, with over 18,000 in the Middle East alone - a workforce that is increasingly caught in the crossfire of geopolitics.
Qatari negotiators flew to Tehran on Sunday morning to help finalise the agreement, because nothing says 'neutral mediator' like a country that hosts both a US military base and a close relationship with Iran. Trump discussed the efforts with British prime minister Keir Starmer, which probably went something like: 'We're going to get a deal, Keir. The best deal. Everyone says so.' Meanwhile, pro-government night-time rallies continue across Iran for more than 100 nights, with some protesters chanting "Death to the compromiser" - presumably aimed at foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, who had the audacity to try to end a war. Araghchi, for his part, told state television: "Iran is the winner of the war with the US" - a statement that would be more convincing if the war had actually ended.