State and territory disability ministers have politely but firmly informed the Albanese government that its plan to overhaul the NDIS has a few, uh, logistical hiccups - namely, that they can't just magic up "like-for-like services" for the more than 200,000 participants expected to be booted off the scheme by 2031.
The government's national disability insurance scheme bill aims to tame the $50-billion-a-year beast by trimming budgets first and then kicking people off starting in 2028. Because nothing says "sustainable" like making vulnerable people someone else's problem.
In a joint submission to the NDIS inquiry on Thursday, states and territories agreed that curbing growth is important - but maybe not at the expense of, you know, participants' safety, wellbeing and life outcomes. They also noted they weren't exactly "meaningfully consulted" on the proposed changes and are a bit twitchy about the federal NDIS minister getting unilateral powers, which they say "signal[s] a broader shift away" from shared governance.
Department modelling shows more than 240,000 participants are expected to be shifted off the NDIS in the four years after new eligibility rules kick in in 2028. The ministers pointed out a distinct lack of "clearly defined alternative supports," creating what they delicately called "the risk of unmet need and cost-shifting to state and territory systems (including health, education and justice), which are not equipped for increased demand and cannot deliver like-for-like services with the NDIS."
"Without a careful, coordinated approach that aligns these changes with broader improvements across the disability support system, there is a significant risk that people with disability will end up in hospitals or other settings that are inappropriate and unable to meet their needs, or have no access to services at all," the submission said. Translation: We're not building a parallel universe NDIS, so maybe don't create one.
Federal health minister Mark Butler, when asked if the government might reconsider the scale of the cuts, offered a masterclass in deflection, calling the plan "very well-developed" and insisting it keeps people with disability "at its centre." He also dismissed the need to extend the Senate inquiry, hoping to pass the legislation before parliament breaks for winter on 2 July.
Opposition leader Angus Taylor said the Coalition wants a longer inquiry but didn't commit to cutting a deal with the Greens. "The most important thing here is that we actually see what is necessary to make it sustainable," he said, offering no specifics.
Meanwhile, the Victorian government unveiled the first details of its Thriving Kids program - a $4 billion, jointly-funded initiative that will remove children under nine with mild developmental delays and autism from the NDIS by 2028. From October, every child will get two developmental assessments: one before kindergarten and another before primary school. The free assessments will be conducted by clinicians and allied health professionals at maternal and child health services, kindergartens and early parenting centres.
Victorian minister for children and disability Lizzie Blandthorn said the program will catch early indicators and refer kids to services like peer support, family services, supported play groups, or speech pathology and occupational therapy. She stressed that children with permanent and significant disabilities or high support needs will still have NDIS access. And in a moment of refreshing candour, she noted the Thriving Kids announcement was "unrelated to the bill" currently being examined - the same bill state and territory ministers worry goes "further" than the changes they'd agreed to.