Sweden's left-wing parties clung to a one-mandate lead on Sunday night with most votes counted, because nothing says "decisive democracy" like a photo finish that might not be resolved until Thursday.
Earlier in the evening, exit polls had suggested the country was on course for a brand-new left-leaning government. Then the actual votes showed up and reminded everyone that exit polls are just astrology for political junkies. With 80% of votes counted, the left-leaning opposition parties led by Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson had 175 mandates, while the rightwing bloc led by Moderate prime minister Ulf Kristersson had 174. At 10:30 pm local time, broadcaster SVT predicted only 20,000 votes separated the two blocs. The election authority said a preliminary vote count may not be ready until Thursday, which is a fun way of saying "go to bed, we'll wake you when it matters."
Speaking just before midnight, Andersson, whose party remains Sweden's biggest but looked to have had its worst result in decades, addressed supporters with the calm of someone who has accepted that every vote must be counted. "Now we will have to wait for the final election results. But my message is clear, we Social Democrats will always be ready to take responsibility for the result. It seems like it will be very even," she said. "But right now we are leading. If it stands, then Sweden will have a new government. But we have to wait for the final result, so let me end where I began, in democracy, the finest thing we have." A stirring sentiment, though possibly less stirring if you're the one waiting for the result.
It was also a rough night for the far-right Sweden Democrats, who had hoped to enter government for the first time but instead slipped from the country's second-biggest party to third. The deputy prime minister, Ebba Busch of the Christian Democrats, told supporters that Sweden would be going "to bed with uncertainty" and may have to wait until Wednesday for a result, which is at least an improvement on Thursday. She remained adamant that the ruling right-leaning coalition should stay in government. "This is a very clear message for the only unified government alternative in this election campaign," she said in an upbeat speech. "This will be a real nail-biter, this could be uncertain all the way until Wednesday."
The nail-biting came after an unusually heated and polarised campaign punctuated by personal attacks between leaders, accusations of misinformation and Maga-inspired ads. Polls had suggested an extremely tight race, with one showing just 0.3 percentage points between the left and right blocs. Polling stations opened at 8am local time (7am UK time), and enthusiasm appeared high: a record 3.6 million voters took part in early voting, with reports of long queues at some polling stations. Whatever the result, coalition talks are expected to take weeks, if not months, because why resolve things quickly when you can stretch the suspense?
The right-leaning bloc, known as the Tidö parties, has been in power for four years. It comprises the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, with a supporting role for SD, Sweden's second-biggest party - until now. The opposition left-leaning bloc is formed of Sweden's biggest party, the Social Democrats, the Centre party, the Green party and the Left party. The rightwing coalition broke a longstanding taboo in 2022 by partnering with SD, which has neo-Nazi roots. SD has attempted to make itself more palatable to the mainstream by toning down its overtly racist rhetoric while arguing that immigration is responsible for Sweden's crime problems. After four years in a supporting role, during which it shifted much of the Swedish establishment to the right and had a strong influence on policies, SD's approach to the election was more brazen. If the right-leaning coalition wins, the party has been promised a prominent role in government, including key ministerial positions.
SD's campaign slogan of "make Sweden Sweden again" was reminiscent of Donald Trump's "make America great again." Its controversial ads on buses - with messages including: "Do you miss Mogadishu? The repatriation grant will help you get home" - were taken down after drivers refused to work in vehicles displaying them. The party leader, Jimmie Åkesson, was accused of sexism after asking the Social Democrats' leader why she was so angry during a TV debate. Another leading SD figure, Gustav Gellerbrant, came under national scrutiny after an investigation by the publication Expo connected his partner to Russian state actors and the spread of Russian propaganda. His partner, who is Russian, works as a civil servant for SD in parliament. Gellerbrant said in response that it was "isolated information" intended to raise suspicion about her Russian origins and has since gone on leave.
Andersson, who voted on Sunday morning in the Stockholm suburb of Nacka, said the campaign had been "a tale of two sides." "There have been a lot of lies and bickering, but at the same time there are so many sensible people out there across the country," she told SVT. "The focus is on winning and setting a new direction for Sweden." Abba's Benny Andersson showed his support for the Social Democrats' leader by performing a reworked version of Mamma Mia to supporters at the party's headquarters, replacing the words "Mamma Mia" with "Magdalena." Because nothing says political gravitas like a disco-infused tribute.
Kristersson had put considerable focus in the final days of campaigning on the penalty discount applied to criminals convicted of various offences. He accused the Social Democrat leader of not standing up for female rape victims. In response, she accused him of weaponising men's violence against women. After voting in the town of Strängnäs, west of the capital, Kristersson said "momentum is on our side." Despite dropping in the latest polls, he said the role of his party was to be "team leaders … uniting for the best of the country." Voters say the most important election issues are healthcare, law and order, immigration and the economy. But much of the election debate has been focused on personal finance, said Radio Sweden's senior political correspondent, Fredrik Furtenbach. "The parties have tried to outdo each other with promises of more money. It has been a sort of auction." And much like an auction, the final price may not be known until Thursday.