In a development that will surely be celebrated by anyone who enjoys the phrase "smaller than originally forecast," Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher are set to present the final budget outcome today, revealing a roughly $6bn improvement since the federal budget. Gallagher, clearly auditioning for a role in a feel-good movie about fiscal responsibility, said, "We do everything we can to make sure that the budget is in as good a shape as it can, acknowledging that we are having to find room to invest in all these areas that the Australian people care about deeply and want to see improved services in." So, the budget is in better shape, but don't expect that to translate into, say, cheaper petrol.

Speaking of things that are not in good shape, Gallagher also addressed the OpenAI breach of Medicare, calling it a sign that we are essentially "in a new world" with the brisk advancement of technology. She told Radio National breakfast: "I think this incident really adds weight to the arguments that the PM has been putting forward about needing to legislate, to provide some protections, some guardrails, and also, you know, have an escalation pathway. I mean, the idea that something happened in June 18th and we weren't aware of it until the second week of September is just not acceptable." Gallagher added that mandatory reporting requirements should be imposed "at a minimum," and that there should be consequences, while acknowledging OpenAI had been helping in the investigation. Because nothing says "new world" like finding out about a data breach three months later.

Meanwhile, Australian consumers are being treated to a delightful triple threat: rising unemployment, stubbornly high inflation, and a looming interest rate hike. But Labor insists better days are on the horizon, like a mirage in a desert of economic despair. The pinch of optimism comes as mortgage holders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the official interest rate to a near-15-year high of 4.6% on Tuesday, an outcome money markets are treating as largely a foregone conclusion. Because why not kick people while they're already down?

Central bankers in the US, Japan, and Europe have all pushed interest rates up since the RBA's board met in August, all crediting their decisions to rising oil and fuel prices resulting from the increasingly intractable US-Iran war. On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said the government knew households were "doing it tough" and was working to put downward pressure on inflation. Average fuel prices in Australia's five largest cities had risen to $2.37 per litre for petrol and $2.69 for diesel as of Wednesday, but Labor has rejected calls for it to reinstate a previous cut to fuel taxes to help ease the burden on road-users. Because nothing says "doing it tough" like paying $2.69 for diesel and being told to just hang in there.

Inflation, which came in hotter than expected in August, could rise from 3.5 to 4% when the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes its latest figures on Wednesday. Chalmers and Gallagher will present the final budget outcome on Monday, the updated accounting measure for the 2025-26 financial year. Despite challenges facing the government, Chalmers is expected to say the figures show the budget deficit is smaller than originally forecast, and he will argue the improvements are worth billions of dollars to the budget. So, the deficit is smaller, but your grocery bill is not. Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. Nick Visser will join us shortly. We have budget news, interest rate hikes on the horizon, and some expert views on autonomous AI and hacks.