Victoria’s deputy premier, Ben Carroll, has confirmed he will nominate for the leadership of the Labor party, after a group of MPs told Premier Jacinta Allan she no longer had the support of caucus. The cross-factional group of ministers and MPs met Allan before Monday’s scheduled cabinet meeting to inform her she had lost the majority of support and urged her to stand down, just four months before the state election.

In a statement released after that meeting, Carroll said he told the premier he would nominate for the leadership, setting up the possibility of a spill on Tuesday. “A group of my colleagues have approached me today, to inform me that Jacinta Allan no longer has the support of our Caucus and have asked me to nominate for the leadership of the Victorian Parliamentary Labor Party,” Carroll said on X, adding that the decision was “not easy” but the “stakes at the upcoming election are simply too high.”

The group that met with Allan included MPs from her own socialist left faction - ministers Ingrid Stitt and Gabrielle Williams, and MP Mathew Hilakari - as well as right-aligned frontbenchers Anthony Carbines and Lizzie Blandthorn. According to sources close to the premier, Allan refused their request to stand down and instead asked the ministers at the meeting to resign, given they had lost faith in her leadership. They also refused.

The MPs had hoped Allan would step down before a potential leadership vote at Tuesday’s caucus meeting and allow Carroll to run unopposed. But in a letter to Victorian Labor state secretary Steve Staikos, Allan indicated she will contest a leadership ballot - triggering a weeks-long process where both the parliamentary caucus and rank-and-file Labor members will vote. The process, introduced after the instability of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, is untested, but would see a leader elected based on 50% of MPs’ votes and 50% party members.

A party spokesperson said no public comments would be made “at this time.” One minister told Guardian Australia that Allan was “not going anywhere,” while another said there was “no uniform position” within the left faction. Attorney General Sonya Kilkenny, a key supporter, called the speculation “idle gossip” on Sunday, adding, “She has my full support, and this idle gossip doesn’t help Victorians.”

Allan became premier after the resignation of Daniel Andrews in September 2023. Momentum for a spill has been building due to poor polling, weak personal approval ratings, rising support for One Nation, and concerns about her response to organised crime infiltrating the state’s Big Build via the construction union. Carroll had previously ruled out a challenge at a press conference on 15 June, where he looked Allan in the eye and declared he would not challenge her. He told reporters: “I’ve got a young daughter at home, and I couldn’t be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier.” It is understood Carroll, if elected, would call for a royal commission, work to resolve the public school teachers’ pay dispute, and attempt to improve the party’s economic credentials.