In a stunning turn of events that has left political pundits scrambling for their history books, Wales is about to get its first Plaid Cymru first minister. Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid leader, will take the top job after three other Senedd parties decided to either back his nomination or, in a move that screams 'enthusiasm', simply abstain.

Plaid, with 43 seats, and Reform, with 34, are now the only big parties in Cardiff Bay, which is a sentence that would have sounded like a dystopian fever dream just a few years ago. The Senedd vote, which could happen as soon as Tuesday, requires ap Iorwerth to get more votes than any other candidate, not a majority of all MSs. So, technically, he could win with a plurality, which is a bit like winning a race by being the only one who didn't trip.

But there's a catch, because there's always a catch. The election of the Llywydd (presiding officer) and a deputy might delay the confirmation until Wednesday. This is because, under the rules, one presiding officer must come from the government and one from the opposition, unless two-thirds of the Senedd agrees to waive the rule. And guess what? Reform, in a move that surprises absolutely no one, has told Plaid it won't agree to that.

Ken Skates, the interim Labour leader after Eluned Morgan lost her seat, has indicated his group will abstain, as will the sole Lib Dem MS Jane Dodds. Meanwhile, the Green Party, with two MSs, will back ap Iorwerth, meaning he literally cannot be blocked. The Green leader Anthony Slaughter called it a 'no-brainer', citing Plaid's 'clear mandate' and the need for 'progressive politics in Wales'. Because nothing says progressive like a party that's been around since 1925 finally getting a shot at the top job.

Over the weekend, ap Iorwerth said he wants Plaid to govern alone, not in coalition, which is either a bold power move or a desperate attempt to avoid sharing the spotlight. He also promised to 'call out' the Labour UK government if they don't 'do the right thing for Wales' and to 'take the fight' to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. So, you know, just another day in Westminster's slightly smaller, more rain-soaked sibling.

Meanwhile, the Tories' Paul Davies and Labour's Huw Irranca-Davies are both vying for the Llywydd job, because who wouldn't want to preside over a parliament where the two biggest parties are Plaid and Reform? Irranca-Davies, the soon-to-be-former deputy first minister, says his 'long and deep experience' makes him perfect for the role. Paul Davies says he'd like it too, but he'll need backing from either Plaid or Reform, which is like asking a vegetarian to support a steakhouse.

In other news, Reform MS Llŷr Powell confirmed they'll nominate their leader, Dan Thomas, for first minister, which is a bit like bringing a knife to a gunfight, but hey, someone has to lose. The Conservatives are expected to meet on Monday to decide their position, because apparently they haven't had enough meetings already.

So, there you have it. Wales is about to be led by a Plaid Cymru first minister, and the world hasn't ended. Yet.