Voters in the Brisbane electorate of Stafford have trudged to the polls for a byelection that political experts say could be the final nail in former premier Steven Miles’ leadership coffin - assuming the coffin isn’t already being measured.

The seat became vacant after the sudden death of independent MP Jimmy Sullivan in April. Sullivan, who had a 6.83% swing against him in the 2024 election, was expelled from the Labor party in May 2025 over legal and medical concerns following a months-long leave of absence and repeated personal attacks by the government in parliament.

If Queensland Labor loses Stafford - a historically working-class suburb in north Brisbane held almost continuously by Labor since 1989 - it would be the first state party in 50 years to lose a byelection to the government from opposition. That’s the kind of stat that doesn’t make for great party conference material.

With a margin of 5.3%, Stafford was the 12th-closest Labor seat at the 2024 election and is considered marginal. The Greens’ how-to-vote card did not recommend its voters preference either Labor or Liberal National parties, a departure from 2024 that could matter if the result is very close.

Griffith University political scientist Paul Williams said it was increasingly likely Fiona Hammond would snatch the seat for the LNP with a predicted vote of 51-52% after preferences. “If [the LNP] bring it from 55 to 53, that’s technically a loss for Labor,” Williams said. “They should be winning this seat with 59-60 and we know that’s not going to happen. If they lose the seat, it’s huge. To lose a seat in Brisbane for Labor is very consequential.”

Williams said a loss would likely be terminal to Miles’ leadership, with shadow treasurer and shadow minister for women Shannon Fentiman best placed to challenge. He also noted One Nation had erred by failing to stand a candidate, where the party might have expected to poll between 12% and 20% - a result that would have almost guaranteed an LNP victory on preferences.

On Friday, Miles said the byelection was an opportunity for voters to send the Crisafulli government a message. He also said the outcome would not change either the government or the leadership of the Labor party. Political experts suggest this is the kind of statement people make right before things change dramatically.