Household energy bills across Great Britain are forecast to climb to a three-year high this winter, as the Middle East war manages to do what British weather couldn't: erase Andy Burnham's tax cut on electricity bills. The government's energy price cap is on track to rise by 4% from October, reaching £1,729 a year for the last three months of 2026 - the highest since July 2023, according to Cornwall Insight. The price spike, driven by soaring energy market prices from the Middle East and Europe's heatwaves guzzling expensive gas, will more than offset the prime minister's promise to cut VAT on electricity bills, which was supposed to save the average household a whopping £45 a year. Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, noted that this is 'a stark reminder that our energy bills remain tied to events thousands of miles away.' He added, 'Moments like this are the strongest argument for reducing Britain's reliance on volatile international gas.' Ofgem will set the new cap next Wednesday, with electricity rates rising from 26.11p to 26.57p per kilowatt hour, and gas from 7.33p to 7.90p for direct debit payers. Under the regulator's new calculations, the typical dual fuel bill will hit £1,729; under the old methodology, it would be £1,940.69. Lowrey warned that 'rising energy bills aren't welcome at the best of times, but with winter approaching, this latest hike will hit struggling households especially hard.' Cornwall expects bills to rise again in January, unless the Middle East calms down. Jess Ralston of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit called it 'a horrible reminder of the first gas crisis after Russia invaded Ukraine,' noting that wholesale gas prices are at a near four-year high. The government, meanwhile, insists it's giving consumers 'breathing space' with VAT cuts, a £150 Warm Home Discount for 6 million households, and a Warm Homes Plan, while vowing to 'do everything we can to shield consumers from global energy shocks' - presumably by doing everything except reducing gas dependence.