Australia's largest lender, Commonwealth Bank, has crunched the numbers on the government's contentious budget tax changes and concluded they'll hit home prices by 5% - more than double the 2% drag Treasury forecast. Senior economists Trent Saunders and Ashwin Clarke found the near-term impact will be sharper than expected, predicting national dwelling prices will be flat over 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3% growth at budget and 5% in March. The property market was already slowing due to global uncertainty and rising interest rates, but apparently the government's tax tweaks are providing an extra shove.
Meanwhile, Anthony Albanese spent the morning calling US tariffs on Australian goods "unwarranted" and "unjustified," noting that 54 countries made the naughty list alongside Australia. The PM lamented that the US has broken with "decades-long understanding that tariffs are not positive for the country imposing them" - a point economists have been making since roughly the invention of trade. Treasurer Jim Chalmers joined the chorus, calling the 12.5% tariffs "inconsistent with our free trade agreement with the US" and promising to keep fighting.
Back in Parliament, the government's budget bill faces a vote in the House today, with Chalmers framing it as a "really simple choice" for the Coalition: support tax cuts for workers and first-home buyers, or oppose them. The Greens are threatening trouble in the Senate over discretionary powers that would let Chalmers amend rules later - which the treasurer dismisses as a "beat-up." Environment Minister Murray Watt expressed confidence the crossbench will see the light, while Nationals frontbencher Bridget McKenzie warned the government is "crashing the housing market" as a solution to the housing crisis.
In other news, Australia's youngest convicted murderer - identified only as SLD - is back behind bars after breaching his supervision orders and possessing child abuse material. The 39-year-old, who stabbed his three-year-old neighbour to death when he was 13, has spent all but four months of his life since then in jail. A judge noted he "cannot last long in the community" without violating terms, and handed down additional time making him eligible for parole in March 2028.