Victoria has recorded its first drop in crime in four years, which is the kind of good news that comes with a lot of asterisks. The Victorian Crime Statistics Agency released data for the 12 months to March 2026, showing 625,426 criminal offences recorded - a decrease of 1,524, or 0.2%, from the previous year. The crime rate, adjusted for population growth, fell by 1.9%, marking the first decline since 2022.
Youth offending also dipped, with 22,554 alleged offences involving young people - a 6% drop. But don't pop the champagne just yet: young people still account for 60% of robberies, 55% of carjackings, 49% of home invasions, and 48% of aggravated burglaries. As CSA chief statistician Fiona Dowsley noted, “For the first time since 2022, incidents alleged to be linked to youth offenders have decreased.” Meanwhile, adult crime rose 10%, driven by breaches of bail, retail theft, and family violence order violations.
Armed robberies, carjackings, and burglaries all fell, but car theft remains stubbornly high - 31,851 vehicles stolen last year, the most since 2001-02. Theft overall was up 6.3%, with over half of the 44,000 incidents involving retail stores - a 11.7% increase. Police blame cost-of-living pressures, which is a polite way of saying people are stealing because everything is expensive.
Deputy Commissioner Bob Hill struck a cautious tone: “While pleasing to see overall crime slightly decrease, the reality is that overall crime in Victoria still remains far higher than both police and the community would like.” Police Minister Anthony Carbines chimed in, calling crime “unacceptably high” but crediting the government's controversial “adult time for violent crime” and tougher bail laws. “On any measure, crime is down, offending is down and more people get in jail and not bail, thanks to our tough new laws,” he said.
Over in New South Wales, the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research released data showing crime has mostly been stable for two years - except for shoplifting and stealing. Shoplifting rose 9.1%, with clothing and footwear theft up 17% and alcohol theft up 13%. But the real headline-grabber: ebike theft surged 27%, accounting for more than a third of the 2,080 stealing incidents. Because apparently, the future of crime is two-wheeled and electric.
NSW also saw a 10% increase in adults facing court, with a third related to domestic violence - though the data suggests this is due to more police enforcement, not more offending. Domestic violence assault charges rose 13% despite incident numbers staying stable. The state's prison system is breaking records: total population hit over 14,000 in March, with record numbers of Indigenous adults in custody and domestic violence offenders making up nearly a third of inmates. Last year also saw a record number of Indigenous deaths in custody - a grim milestone no one was competing for.