UK interest rates are poised to remain at 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, as the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) continues its cautious approach - presumably waiting for a sign from the heavens or at least a stable global outlook.

Uncertainty over global politics, the economy, and the impact of the Iran war on energy prices means the Bank is likely to hold rates steady. The MPC, a committee of five women and four men, will announce its decision at 12:00 BST, with a hold being the widespread expectation. The benchmark rate is at its lowest since February 2023, but analysts aren’t holding their breath for any short-term changes.

The Bank rate is the MPC’s primary tool for keeping inflation at the 2% target. Latest figures show UK inflation at 2.6% in the year to June, slightly down but still above target. Inflation is likely to rise in July as millions of households face a 13% increase in domestic energy prices, courtesy of the Iran war’s impact on wholesale energy costs.

“A new government finding its feet, and the situation in the Middle East becoming increasingly uncertain, mean that a hold on the base rate decision would be a welcome dose of stability,” said Katie Horne from savings platform Flagstone. Because nothing says stability like a committee deciding to do nothing.

A hold would leave monthly repayments unchanged for homeowners on tracker mortgages. However, over 80% of mortgage customers have fixed-rate deals, and major UK lenders have been increasing rates on new deals recently - averaging 5.62% for a two-year fix, the highest in over a month. The sector moves as a pack, because no one wants to be the lender inundated with applications.

David Hollingworth from mortgage broker L&C noted, “A hold is still welcome, but market expectations will need to ease back before we can hope for a return to lenders cutting rates.” The Bank projects that over five million homeowners should expect higher monthly repayments by the end of 2028.

On the bright side, savers might catch a break: top one-year bonds now offer 4.91%, the highest since October 2024. Rachel Springall of Moneyfacts called it “a rare dose of good news for savers” and a silver lining after years of poor real returns. So, at least someone’s not completely miserable.